Add to this the fact that Taleb also claims that what is a Black Swan event is conditional on the eye of the beholder. The Black Swan, considered itself to be a rare and unpredictable condition for a swan, is the name for a theory used as a metaphor to describes an events that comes as a surprise with a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Nicholas Taleb was an option trader and quantitative analyst who mistrusts “bell-curve" models. Add to this the fact Taleb’s claims that what a Black Swan is conditional on the eye of the beholder. Black Swans are not predicable because they are unknown until after they occur. It is only after the fact that we can develop an explanation for what happens that makes the event seem less random, and more predictable, than it was. It is unpredictable and carries a massive impact. A black swan is a highly improbable event.
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